Marine Kang | 2026 I.S. Symposium
狈补尘别:听Marine Kang
罢颈迟濒别:听Not Everyone Recovers from Disaster in the Same Way: Wildfire Risk, Insurance Premiums, and Income-Stratified Migration in California
Majors: Economics ; English
础诲惫颈蝉辞谤蝉:听Jancy Ling Liu; Jennifer Hayward
Wildfire risk in the United States is unevenly distributed, reflecting underlying socioeconomic differences rather than random exposure. While existing research typically finds that natural disasters induce population outflows, it largely focuses on realized migration and overlooks the possibility that households may face increasing pressure to relocate while being unable to do so. In addition, existing approaches remain limited in explaining how such constraints are experienced and interpreted across individuals. This paper develops a framework in which migration is a constrained decision shaped by both migration pressure and migration feasibility. Wildfire exposure raises the cost of remaining in place, yet simultaneously tightens household budget constraints, preventing relocation. Using a ZIP code 脳quarter panel dataset for California from 2017q2 to 2023q1, I find that wildfire exposure does not lead to mass exit. Instead, it induces a short-run decline in both in-migration and out-migration鈥攁 鈥渕obility freeze鈥濃攚ith no systematic change in net migration. These effects attenuate over time and are stronger in lower-income and lower-wealth areas. I interpret these patterns as reflecting a tension between increased migration pressure and reduced migration feasibility, for which insurance market responses provide a plausible mechanism. Rising premiums, reduced coverage, and insurer withdrawal increase the cost of remaining while limiting households鈥 ability to move. To interpret these dynamics, I draw on environmental humanities to conceptualize mobility freeze as constrained agency under environmental risk, where the same shock produces uneven lived experiences across socioeconomic groups. Overall, this paper highlights constrained mobility as a central adjustment to environmental risk and provides evidence that the ability to move is unequally distributed, while the experience of environmental risk varies across socioeconomic groups.
Posted in Symposium 2026 on May 1, 2026.
